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Has anyone noticed how silent Google is about podcasting?

Lately, I’ve been helping Grace collect KPI’s for her new podcast business.  It’s interesting comparing the myriads of "podcast directories" with Google.  The world of podcasting reminds me to the Internet "Portals" of 1997.  Everybody thought having a portal was the thing to do, and directories sprung up everywhere.  PodNova, Yahoo Podcasts, The Podcast Network, Idiotvox, and Odeo are all essentially the same product: directories.

Some will argue that these are more than that.  That they are "content aggregators".  Or that they "empower podcast developers" with tools and technologies to make podcasts easier to do.  But really, they will end up as directories where search is their most important feature.

Why?

Podcast Tools and Techniques: Going, Going, Gone

There used to be a mystique about streaming media.  There was a time when even competent web developers would seek specialists.  But, at a recent visit to Streaming Media World in New York, it was clear that having conferences about Streaming Media was about as sensible as having conferences about "How to use JPEGs!".  Streaming Media is mainstream.  The conference focused on "special corporate applications" and media management platforms.  Everybody who was really involved in streaming media was elsewhere.  That’s because if you want to use streaming media, it’s pretty easy once you learn a few of the basics.

The same is true of Podcasting.

Anybody can do it, really.  OK, right now, it’s difficult to learn the vagaries of RSS and to understand a lot of the details.  Just like CSS, there are some specs which are hard to read, some competing tagging standards, and of course XML is still a bit of a bugaboo to some people, especially those who don’t know the technical jargon.

But, that will end.  Within a year, a combination of some downloadable "wizard-like" tools (such as FeedForAll), along with the eventual increase of knowledge will eliminate the learning curve and people will realize that creating podcasts is easy.  Well, maybe the content is hard, but that’s nothing new, and none of these sites will help you be a great content producer.  Just the mechanics, maam.

Podcasters will learn that aggregator sites are a waste of time, and independent brand building by successful podcasters will result in side-by-side competition with other content sites using search tools, like, er…, um, Google!  The term podcasting will be downplayed, and suddenly, what will be important to people is the brand.  Sites such as Coverville will last as a content brand, and the fact that they use podcasts to reach their audience will become a trivial footnote.

So, any aggregation site which relies on tools and techniques and wizards really won’t have much purpose or differentiation.

Content Aggregators: Who Owns It?

Some believe that they are becoming new content powerhouses.    For example, Adam Curry’s Podshow and The PodSquad are an example of this.  In reality, I don’t think Curry really believes in the long term aggregation schtick.  He’s reformulating radio and using podcast as content fodder. 

Such efforts have sprung up all over the place.  Australia’s Podcast Network is a fine effort to become a content aggregator.  But, who really owns the content?  An aggregator will have staying power only with exclusives, and unless aggregators have a very, very narrow niche content focus, they will be competing with large general aggregators like Yahoo who rely upon search technologies and community building to deliver what people want.

So, unless an aggregator has signed exclusive deals with top talent, they’ll fall by the wayside and just be another directory.  And top talent does not mean Dawn and Drew, in case you wondered.

Back to Google

One thing is clear.  When you regularly visit PodNova, Yahoo, and Odeo to collect analytical data, you realize that their search algorithms are toys compared to Google.  Google is a living, breathing machine powered by complex heuristics with a great deal of data to sample.  The podcasts we’ve been tracking on PodNova and Odeo have had exactly the same ratings and positioning for the past week.  Google’s position of these sites and podcasts changes hourly!  It is clear that these sites don’t do search very well.

So, if podcasting becomes childsplay, and the aggregators don’t own their content, say goodbye.

Whether Google decides to launch a podcast site or not isn’t important.  Right now, you can go to Google and find "news podcasts" more easily and reliably than any other method.  I predict that Google will add a "Podcasts" link right next to their "News" link.  If they’re smart, they won’t try to help people with the technology, they’ll just focus on search.

For podcasters, this is a great time.  Every directory under the sun wants to list you.  Without even trying, your podcasts are scattered through tens of thousands of pages, and being seen is easier than ever.  The smart podcasters will stick to their brand, and use podcasting as a "launch vehicle" rather than becoming romantically involved with the technology.

But, in the end, it will be the podcasters that focus on high-quality exclusive content that will win, not the aggregators.

Google is already better, and I’m not sure they’re trying that hard.